Could Gracie Abrams Catch Shaboozey Before He Sets the Hot 100 Record? 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 23, we look at the chances of a quickly rising hit to halt the increasingly historic reign of the decade’s longest-running Hot 100 No. 1. 

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s 17 weeks now for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade, and second place all-time. The only song still standing in its way from standing alone atop all Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the imminent release of his new song “Light Again,” though we’ll see if he still has the viral skills to be able to protect his own chart record — “J Christ,” his first release of 2024, topped out at No. 69.) 

Anyway, it’s the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which is mostly slipping in its weekly performance – though it was actually up 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales chart – but not falling fast enough for anything below it to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song might get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday-announced (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations, where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.” 

Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there’s a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up from behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” didn’t look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The Secret of Us, but it’s continued to grow every week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week, and even passing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs, as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok has helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as has a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world’s biggest tour as a continued platform, as Abrams continues opening Canadian dates on Taylor Swift’s Eras trek through early December.) 

Now, the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while also climbing to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could take it to the Hot 100’s 10 next week – and so far, it’s just kept climbing. The question of if it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey might come down to radio – of course, “A Bar Song” has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while “That’s So True” is just beginning to draw airplay, behind Abrams’ other contemporaneous hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry.” But “True” is slowly gaining steam there, too, so if it continues to grow while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long.  

Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Holiday season rush begins? We’ll see, but if nothing else, it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.  

Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a good week for Interscope on the charts, as between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists are also likely beneficiaries of Friday’s Grammy nominations: “Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish – a Grammy darling since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 on her debut album – has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit Me Hard and Soft and song and record of the year for “Birds of a Feather.”  

Both songs should stay in the mix at the Hot 100’s top next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board – “Feather” holds atop Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” may challenge for its first week atop Streaming Songs next frame. But it’s unclear if either has the cards left to play to help get either over the hump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy nominee, the bump there for either is unlikely to be major enough to be the difference-maker.