Will Lil Baby or Bad Bunny Score the First New No. 1 Album of 2025 on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 18, 2025, we look at whether new releases from Lil Baby or Bad Bunny can unseat a reigning blockbuster that dates back to 2022.  

Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): One of the biggest names in music at the turn of the 2020s, Atlanta rapper Lil Baby has been less dominant on the charts the past couple years but still draws a good deal of attention every time out. On Friday (Jan. 2), he released his new set WHAM – not named after the ‘80s U.K. duo who just hit a new peak of No. 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 with the holiday staple “Last Christmas,” but an acronym standing for Who Hard as Me – with 15 brand new cuts, including features from fellow ATL superstars Future, Young Thug and 21 Savage and other big names like Travis Scott, GloRilla and Rod Wave.  

The set is off to a strong start on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it continues to litter the top 100 of its real-time chart five days after release, while also claiming the No. 1 spot with the Future and Thug teamup “Dum, Dumb and Dumber.” It should also be helped by sales of the set’s deluxe digital edition on Baby’s webstore available for $4.99, which boasts four new songs not currently available on DSPs, including another Future collab in “99.” (He also has a standard CD available for purchase at his webstore, along with a couple “Fan Packs” that include additional merch, offering a discount on the CD if you buy the merch along with it.)  

It should all add up to WHAM having a pretty good chance to make it big on the Billboard 200 next week. If it can claim the top spot, it would be Lil Baby’s fourth consecutive visit there this decade, after previously hitting No. 1 with 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s Lil Durk teamup The Voice of the Heroes and 2022’s It’s Only Me.  

Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Another one of the biggest stars of the early 2020s, Bad Bunny dropped his new album Debí Tirar Más Fotos (I Should Have Taken More Photos) on Sunday (Jan. 5). The 17-track LP – which contains just a handful of collaborations, and none with household-name artists – has been hailed by critics as a “homecoming” for the artist born Benito Antonio Martinez Ocasio, who spends much of the set dabbling in genres native to his home country of Puerto Rico like salsa and plena.  

Fotos has seen robust early returns on streaming, though it has yet to produce a clear breakout hit, and neither of its advance tracks (“El Clúb” or “Pitorro de Coco”) made much of an impression on the Hot 100 upon their release. The album is also currently available for physical release, with only a digital version available on his webstore and iTunes for $4.99. Its debut numbers will also certainly be dampened by the set’s Sunday release, which means it will be missing two days’ worth of consumption from its first week of tracking.  

Still, Bad Bunny will always be a factor in the Billboard 200 albums race when he releases a new LP. Like Lil Baby, he has sent his last three albums this decade to No. 1 on the chart: 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo, 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti and 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana.  

SZA, SOS (Top Dawg/RCA): SZA’s R&B sophomore blockbuster SOS had already been a 10-week No. 1 on the Billboard 200 from late 2022 to early 2023, and one of the most acclaimed and beloved albums of the first half of the 2020s. But at the beginning of this year, SOS returned to the top of the chart, thanks to a boost provided by the release of its deluxe edition, titled LANA. The re-release featured 14 totally new cuts (as well as the previously released Hot 100 top 10 hit “Saturn”), including “30 for 30,” a collaboration with her upcoming stadium tour co-headliner Kendrick Lamar.  

The set has now reigned on the Billboard 200 for the first two chart weeks of the calendar year, with six-figure units posted in each frame. Those numbers will likely slip a little in the third week of release for LANA, but considering SOS remained one of the top-streamed albums for years after its release even before she dropped the deluxe edition – it was still No. 15 on the Billboard 200 in the final chart week of 2024 – it should still be a very strong performer on the chart next week, and hardly a low bar to clear for either Baby or Bunny.