How Big Hits Have Kept the Hot 100’s Top 10 in a Historic Holding Pattern

A summer slowdown in new Billboard Hot 100 top 10s has been followed by a near fall freeze.

Over the past three-plus months, between Hot 100 charts dated from the beginning of July through Oct. 19, only seven songs have notched new peaks in the top 10, led by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which has run up an active 14-week reign — the third-longest this decade — beginning July 13.

The other six such Hot 100 top 10s in that span (pending any further climbs): Morgan Wallen’s “Lies Lies Lies” (No. 7 peak, July 20); Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” (No. 3, Aug. 31); Sabrina Carpenter’s “Taste” (No. 2, Sept. 7); Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” (No. 4, Sept. 28); Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” (No. 2, Oct. 12); and The Weeknd and Playboi Carti’s “Timeless” (No. 3, Oct. 12).

The tracks have gained entrance to an especially exclusive club of long-running hits in the Hot 100’s top 10 in that stretch, also among them Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” which has lodged in the tier for 39 weeks and counting, tying for the fifth-longest top 10 stay in the chart’s archives. Plus, Carpenter’s “Espresso” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things,” at Nos. 4 and 10, respectively, on the latest list have each spent 25 weeks in the top 10, while “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has pulled up a stool in the region for 24 weeks.

The extent of two songs hitting new highs in the Hot 100’s top 10 so far in October, following two each in September and July and one in August, represents the most fallow three-month-plus period for turnover in the top bracket over the chart’s entire 66-year history.

Put in further perspective, “Die With a Smile” in August ended a nearly five-year run of multiple Hot 100 top 10s posting new peaks every month since; in November 2018, Ariana Grande’s “Thank U, Next” was the only track to do so, when it began a seven-week rule. Overall, such inertia in the top 10 is rare. March 2009 sported one hit reaching a new high (The All-American Rejects’ “Gives You Hell”), while January 2002 marks the only monthly shutout ever. (Eilish wasn’t ready yet to keep the streak going, as she was born the month before.)

The current trend of hits repeating in the Hot 100’s top 10 isn’t necessarily a bad thing — every week in the chart’s history has featured exactly 10 in-demand top 10s, regardless of their age. A chicken-and-egg element is also involved: Are big hits so strong that newer songs can’t overcome them, or are challengers not on the same level? In any case, a select group of established hits — many multiformat smashes strong in streaming, airplay and sales — is preventing new songs from cycling through the chart’s upper reaches at a rate in line with the past.

What’s behind the relative lack of movement in the Hot 100’s top 10 since early summer? Below are five seemingly key factors.