Shaboozey, Morgan Wallen, Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga: Who Will Win the Crowded Race for No. 1 on Next Week’s Hot 100?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 9, we look at Shaboozey’s chances to reclaim the top spot for a historic 16th week, and the many competitors trying to get in his way.  

Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Every conversation about the Hot 100 for the past three (nearly four) months has had to lead off with Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the surprise breakout country hit that has now gone on a near-historic run of chart dominance. After 15 nonconsecutive frames atop the chart, the song ceded pole position last week to Morgan Wallen’s “Love Somebody” — good timing for Wallen, since his “Last Night” is the 16-week No. 1 that “A Bar Song” is now one week away from tying as the longest-running Hot 100-topper of the 2020s.  

“A Bar Song” remains an extremely strong performer, sliding to No. 3 on both Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales (due to the debuts of “Love Somebody” and ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ “APT.” ahead of it on both charts) but remaining No. 1 on Radio Songs for a 13th week. It looks headed for a 14th week atop that chart, and even with its sales and streams continuing to slip this late into its lifespan, they should be strong enough to keep it as the song to beat on the Hot 100 – though this week, a handful of other songs will be in the running to do so.  

Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen blocked Shaboozey from tying his 2020s Hot 100 record this week, but next week, he may need some help. “Love Somebody” is expected to recede across the board next week, with streams and sales dipping as is typical of a big new song in its second week – and radio likely also falling back some, as the song received heavily concentrated first-day plays as promotion for the new single by country’s biggest current artist. But its streaming and sales numbers remain sturdy, so as the song likely continues to pick up in airplay from here (with Wallen currently one of the most reliable radio artists in all of popular music), it certainly could contend for the top spot again soon, and possibly for many weeks after. 

Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Since debuting at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in August, “Die With a Smile” has been milling rather innocuously around the middle of the top 10. But if you’d counted it out as a No. 1 contender, you may have done so prematurely – it appears that this is the week the two pop superstars are making their move to potentially claim the top spot. Two new versions of the song have been released, an instrumental and a “Live From Las Vegas” version, the latter also unveiled with an accompanying live video. All three versions have also been discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – and as of posting, they occupied the top three spots on iTunes’ real-time chart.  

It’s interesting timing, because Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga both have other songs that are chart contenders to some degree this week. Mars’ “APT.” teamup with ROSÉ debuted at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week, and continues to do very well on both streaming and iTunes, while Gaga has a brand new single with “Disease” — which she also dropped a new video for on Tuesday night (Oct. 29), along with the live “Smile.” Neither song is a likely contender for the top spot however, with Gaga’s latest currently something of a longshot for the top 10 due to modest streaming returns: “Disease” has fallen out of the top 50 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, and out of the top 100 on Apple Music’s real-time listing.

Tyler, the Creator, “St. Chroma” & “Noid” (Columbia): Always the iconoclast, star rapper Tyler, the Creator decided to release his latest album Chromakopia at 6:00 on a Monday morning (Oct. 28). Yet even with just over half of a tracking week to work with, the album is the likely frontrunner for the top spot on next week’s Billboard 200, with excitement over the album resulting in the tracklist dominating the entire top 10 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time listing on its debut day — despite being released six hours into the day. 

At least two of those songs could have a major Hot 100 impact next week, as well. “St. Chroma,” the album’s Daniel Caesar-featuring lead track – which previously teased by Tyler with a short two weeks ago – has been in the early lead on streaming services, with some mighty first-day numbers. A few spots behind it has been “Noid,” which despite not being the current best-performing song from the album, does have the advantage of having been released the week before (along with its own music video), thus making it the lone song on the album with a full tracking week’s worth of consumption — although its overall daily numbers were much lower before the album’s release.  

Had the full album been released on a Friday, we may very well have been talking about one of these songs as Tyler, the Creator’s first Hot 100 No. 1. Instead, he may end up settling for his first Hot 100 top 10 hit – which is obviously of course still very impressive, especially in a week where all the other songs in the race have such a massive head start.