Spotify’s Wall Street Rebound Is Leading Music Stocks’ Growth

Spotify was the biggest contributor to the 13% increase posted by the 21 stocks tracked by the Billboard Global Music Index for the first half of 2023.

Fueled by cost-cutting and corporate reorganization, shares of Spotify gained 103.4% through June 30. While that wasn’t the largest on a percentage basis for stocks on the index, Spotify’s size — it has the second-largest market capitalization of stocks that Billboard tracks — meant the company’s improvement was the single largest factor in the index’s gain.

The Global Music Index is a float-adjusted index of 21 music stocks. Each company’s market capitalization — the value of outstanding shares — is adjusted to remove the shares of insiders, corporate owners and long-term investors. The remaining market value reflects the shares available to be bought and sold on the open market. The index does not weight stocks to balance the influence of larger and smaller companies. (MSG Entertainment is not included in the index because it wasn’t an active stock for the entire six-month measurement period.)

Only half of the index’s six streaming stocks posted gains through June 30: Los Angeles-based platform LiveOne — with a relatively small market cap of $151 million — shot up 173%, and China’s Cloud Music improved 7.1%. On the losing end, Tencent Music Entertainment, also based in China, fell 10.9%; France’s Deezer dropped 17.8%; and Anghami, based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, lost 26.6%.

Outside of music, other streaming companies' stocks also performed well in the first half of 2023 after losing ground in 2022. Netflix and Roku gained 49.4% and 60.5%, respectively, while Warner Bros. Discovery and Walt Disney Company — broader entertainment companies with streaming platforms and, lately, much C-suite drama — improved 32.3% and 2.8%, respectively.

Strong demand for in-person experiences following the pandemic helped live-music companies recover from share-price losses in 2022. Live Nation shares improved 30.6% to $91.11, and the company had the second-largest gain in adjusted market capitalization. Sphere Entertainment, CEO James Dolan's gambit to change the live-entertainment business, gained 31.9% after adjusting for the spinoff of MSG Entertainment in April. Germany's CTS Eventim, stung by criticism over fee transparency by a German public TV show in June, dropped 2.9%. Live Nation's market cap overpowered CTS Eventim's loss, and all of the live-music companies collectively accounted for 32% of the index's growth.

The index's 13% gain was less than closely watched indexes such as the S&P 500 (up 15.9%) and the Nasdaq composite (31.7%). Both indexes are dominated by gains from tech titans such as Nvidia (up 189.5%), Meta (138.5%), Apple (49.3%), Microsoft (42%) and Alphabet (36.3%). Of that group, only Meta has a market cap under $1 trillion. The Billboard Global Music Index easily beat the 7.2% gain of the Russell 2000, an index of small-cap U.S. stocks with a median market cap of about $1 billion.

While Spotify's share price of $160.55 is well below its all-time high of $387.44 reached in February 2021, it shows that investors regained some belief in the company's long-term prospects. Spotify benefited from the same pandemic boost that carried Netflix to a record-high market cap. At the same time, investors were also enthusiastic about the potential for its podcasting business to evolve the music platform into an audio entertainment hub and improve margins constrained by label licensing deals.

Diving into podcasting required large cash outlays for acquisitions, staff and content deals with Joe Rogan, former President Barack and Michelle Obama, and Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, among others. By March 2022, investors had become impatient for margins to improve, and Spotify's share price dipped to $118.20. As a wave of belt-tightening swept corporations worldwide, Spotify made drastic changes: It laid off 6% of its workforce in January and cut another 2% in June entirely from its podcast division. It restructured its podcasting leadership, canceled shows and consolidated its various podcast brands — The Ringer, Gimlet and Parcast — under the Spotify Studios umbrella.

Layoffs and reorganization have been especially common in the radio business. SiriusXM laid off 8% of its workforce in March and reorganized its podcast business. After the company announced it would shutter its stand-alone podcast app, Stitcher, its share price increased 18.5% in the last week of June. Its stock was down 22.4% at the year's midway point, hurt by soft forecasts for self-pay subscribers and the weak advertising market that led to three radio companies in the index falling an average of 32.3%. IHeartMedia (down 40.6%) and Cumulus Media (34%) have also cut costs and laid off staff.

Two South Korean companies ­— both a mix of label and management company — accounted for two of the biggest gains outside of Spotify and Live Nation. HYBE, home to BTS, improved 62.2%, and SM Entertainment, the company behind NCT 127, gained 39.2%. SM's share price benefited from a takeover battle. HYBE lost out to Kakao Corp. and Kakao Entertainment, which now collectively own 40% of SM, but its stock has more than reclaimed the losses suffered in June 2022, when BTS announced its hiatus.

Outside of South Korea, label and music publishing stocks had mixed results at midyear. Universal Music Group, the index's largest company by market cap, and Warner Music Group declined 9.6% and 25.5%, respectively.