Universal & Warner Music Group Shares Rise on New Spotify Licenses

For more than a year, record labels and publishers have seen investors pour into streaming stocks — namely Spotify — while downplaying the potential benefits rights owners will accrue from rising subscription prices. Now, Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) are getting some attention as analysts are optimistic about the terms of new licensing agreements Spotify reached with the companies.

WMG shares rose 10.9% to $36.20 a week after the company released fiscal first-quarter results. This week, the stock got a boost when Citi raised its WMG price target to $42 from $34 and upgraded the stock to a “buy” rating from “neutral.” As Morningstar explained last week, WMG is a “primary beneficiary of the ongoing growth” in the music industry. At $36.20, WMG shares have gained 17.0% in 2025 and are only slightly below their 52-week high of $36.64 set in February 2024. WMG shares fell 13.4% in 2024.

At UMG, shares rose 7.1% to 28.89 euros ($30.32), the stock’s highest closing price since May 27, 2024. Morgan Stanley analysts have been making the case that UMG is undervalued given Spotify’s soaring share price and this week raised its UMG price target to 42 euros ($44.07) from 36 euros ($37.78). Recent licensing deals with Spotify and Amazon “increases our confidence that its subscription growth will accelerate” from approximately 5% at the start of 2025 to “closer to 15%” at the beginning of 2026, they wrote in a Monday (Feb. 10) investor note. After falling 4.2% in 2024, UMG shares are up 20.8% in 2025.

WMG and UMG were among the best performers on the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) this week. The BGMI rose 4.6% to a record 2,755.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 29.7%. Only two stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains for the week. The index outperformed the Nasdaq composite (up 2.6%), the S&P 500 (up 1.5%), the FTSE 100 (up 0.4%), China’s SSE Composite Index (up 1.3%) and South Korea’s KOSPI composite index (flat versus the previous week).

Live Nation reached an all-time high of $152.94 on Friday (Feb. 14) before closing at $153.76, up 3.7% for the week. Ahead of the concert promoter’s earnings results on Thursday (Feb. 20,) Wolfe Research increased its price target to $175 from $160 and Goldman Sachs raised it to $166 from $148.

Streaming services fared well, too. Spotify rose another 2.4% to $637.73 and reached a new all-time high of $652.63 on Thursday (Feb. 13). Fewer than seven weeks into 2025, Spotify shares have gained 36.7%. Elsewhere on the streaming front, Cloud Music rose 9.1% to 142.20 HKD ($18.01) and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 8.7% to $13.63.

Music streamer LiveOne had the week’s biggest loss after falling 20.5% to $0.93. On Thursday, the company announced that its revenue fell 6% in the fiscal third quarter. LiveOne also lowered revenue and earnings guidance for its full year, causing shares to end the day down 18.6%. The other streaming loser was Abu Dhabi-based Anghami, which fell 2.7% to $0.71.

Satellite radio broadcaster SiriusXM shares rose 6.6% to $27.11, bringing its year-to-date gain to 21.2%. This week, Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $27 from $25.

Most K-pop companies finished the week in positive territory. HYBE shares rose 5.8% and reached their highest mark since July 2023. SM Entertainment, which reported a 9% increase in revenue this week, increased 5.4%. JYP Entertainment improved 4.2% and YG Entertainment fell 1.3%.