Who Will Receive the MTV Video Vanguard Award at This Year’s VMAs? Breaking Down the Likely Contenders

Not many non-technical awards given out at the first-ever MTV Video Music Awards in 1984 — which included such now-defunct categories as best stage performance in a video and most experimental video — are still around in any form nearly three decades later. But the Video Vanguard, a lifetime achievement honor awarded to an artist for their “outstanding contributions and profound impact on music video and popular culture,” has not only survived, it’s arguably come to rival video of the year as the most anticipated award of the night.

While not given out consistently — many years were skipped in the ’90s and ’00s, as well as the COVID-stricken first two years of the 2020s — the award (officially named the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard in 1991) has evolved from the ’80s, when it was given out to directors and technicians as well as artists (often in the same year), to the past decade, where it has come to be a solo artist-specific honor. Starting with Justin Timberlake in 2013, the award has also come to be accompanied by an extended performance from the recipient, usually featuring a career-spanning medley of hits.

Last year, Nicki Minaj became the 26th recording artist to win the award, a list of performers that dates back to The Beatles and David Bowie at the first-ever VMAs, and also includes such legendary names as Janet Jackson, Madonna, U2, Britney Spears, Beyoncé, Ye and Rihanna. Before Minaj, the most recent inductee was Missy Elliott in 2019, after an online movement that criticized the channel for not rewarding her previously gained viral momentum. Outside of the Video Vanguard award, other artists who have received career-saluting honors from the VMAs this decade include Lady Gaga (recipient of the “Tricon” award in 2020), Foo Fighters and Red Hot Chilli Peppers (both named “Global Icon,” in 2021 and 2022, respectively).

With Billboard having confirmed that the award will be handed out again in 2023, we figured it was a good time to look into some of the viable candidates for this year’s honors. From least likely to most likely, here’s how we break down the best options.

Additional reporting by Paul Grein.