Will Lil Uzi Vert Finally Break Through With Hip-Hop’s First No. 1 of 2023 on the Billboard 200?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 15), a blockbuster release from Lil Uzi Vert marks hip-hop’s best shot this year at a Billboard 200 No. 1 – though they still need to get through Morgan Wallen first.  

Lil Uzi Vert, Pink Tape (Generation Now/Atlantic): Both Gunna (A Gift & A Curse, No. 3) and Young Thug (Business Is Business, No. 2) got close with their recent releases, but neither were able to end the longest drought for hip-hop atop the Billboard 200 to start a calendar year since 1993. Now, another one of the genre’s biggest stars of the past half-decade steps up to the plate: Lil Uzi Vert, who released the long-awaited Pink Tape on Friday (June 30).  

The last time Uzi dropped a new full-length, it was one of the biggest releases of the pre-pandemic 2020s: Eternal Atake, the 18-track set that was expanded to the 32-track Lil Uzi Vert vs. The World 2 deluxe edition just a week later, and which bowed at No. 1 with 288,000 equivalent album units earned. Even without a deluxe reissue, Pink Tape already comes with 26 tracks — one of which is the former Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hit “Just Wanna Rock” — so the album will likely put up early streaming totals about as mighty as its predecessor.  

Will it be enough for Pink Tape to do what 11 No. 2 albums that fell one spot short of Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time could not – with the latter set still posting over 100,000 units a week? Pink Tape would need to do nearly all of its damage in streams, as the album is currently only for sale digitally, with an alternate cover and a digital signature the only available variants. If it does, however, it’ll break an even longer No. 1-less streak than for its parent label than its genre — Atlantic hasn’t scored a No. 1 since Gunna’s DS4Ever, credited to Gunna/Young Stoner Life/300/AG, in Jan. 2022 – while also ending Republic’s 17-week streak at No. 1, between Wallen’s One Thing, Stray Kids’ 5-STAR and Taylor Swift’s Midnights.  

Aespa, My World (SM/Warner): Korean girl group Aespa has increased its stateside presence greatly over the last few years, with three members even coming out at Yankee Stadium to throw the first pitch at a Yankees-White Sox game in June before the quartet’s performance at the Governor’s Ball festival the following weekend. Their last EP, 2022’s Girls, made it all the way to No. 3 on the Billboard 200, easily the act’s finest showing on the chart to date.  

Between Uzi’s debut and Wallen’s continued dominance, it may be tough for the group to improve on that bow with third EP My World, released on Friday. Nonetheless, the group should benefit from robust physical sales, with more than 16 different collectible CD editions of its new album available — most with a variety of branded paper merchandise in each, with randomized elements, and exclusive variants for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, the act’s webstore, Target and Walmart. 

In the Mix

Tainy, Data (Neon16): The first solo-lead album from longtime reggaetón superproducer Tainy — following 2021’s two-hander Dynasty alongside Yandel — Data is a genre-mixing, star-studded affair 19-track affair. The biggest of those stars is of course longtime collaborator Bad Bunny, lending vocals to a pair of tracks: “Lo Siento BB:/,” also co-starring veteran pop-rock singer-songwriter Julieta Venegas, and the brand new “Mojabi Ghost,” which is already off to a very strong start on streaming.  

Rylo Rodriguez, Been One (4PF/Glass Window Entertainment): A regular collaborator of A-list rapper Lil Baby — as well as a signee to his 4PF (4 Pockets Full) label — Alabama rapper Rylo Rodriguez has been building acclaim and a fanbase for several years now. That should pay off with second album Been One, another 19-track set with appearances from Baby, as well as hitmakers Lil Durk, Lil Yachty and 4PF labelmate EST Gee.  

Olivia Rodrigo, Sour (Geffen): Sour has been a fixture on the Billboard 200 for the 110 weeks since its June 2021 debut on the chart, but it’s been climbing recently as news of the September release for Olivia Rodrigo‘s sophomore set Guts has drummed up excitement for her universally acclaimed debut. That should only increase on next week’s chart, as Guts lead single “Vampire” sinks its fangs into the general public and turns them all back into Livies.