Will Young Thug Score the Year’s First Hip-Hop No. 1 Album?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 8), an unexpected release from an incarcerated rapper leads a week that also includes some familiar names releasing debut albums, and others releasing their first projects in six years.  

Young Thug, Business Is Business (YSL/300): A week after Gunna reached the Billboard 200’s No. 3 spot with his A Gift & A Curse album, his labelmate Young Thug should have a chance of doing even better with his new set, Business Is Business. Much interest in the new set is undoubtedly driven by not only the rapper’s incarceration, while he awaits trial on racketeering charges, but also his possibly strained relationship with Gunna — who was similarly indicted in the RICO trial, but released after taking an Alford Plea (a formal admission of guilt made while also maintaining innocence). 

The alleged drama between the two rappers isn’t the only thing spurring consumption of the set, though. Young Thug has long been one of the most successful rappers on streaming, and Business’ tracklist is filled with appearances from A-listers like Drake, Lil Uzi Vert, Future, 21 Savage & Travis Scott. The 15-track set, which does not yet have a physical release, is also receiving today a deluxe Metro’s Version, named after its executive producer (and longtime Thug collaborator) Metro Boomin, and including two extra bonus tracks, including one with appearances from superstars Nicki Minaj and the late Juice WRLD.

Standing in the album’s way, of course, is Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – now the longest-reigning album of the last 10 years on the Billboard 200, with its 14 weeks on top. That album is still posting weekly units in the low six figures, so Thug will need to do a little better than the 90,000 first-week units his most recent album (2021’s Punk) notched to claim the top spot. (He would also score the first hip-hop No. 1 album of 2023 on the Billboard 200 in the process.) 

Peso Pluma, Génesis (Double P/Prajin/The Orchard): No star around the globe has risen as quickly or as dramatically this year as Mexican corridos singer-songwriter Peso Pluma. He’s already made such an impact on the Billboard Hot 100 this year – reaching the chart 11 times, including with the top 5 hit “Ella Baila Sola,” alongside Eslabon Armado – that it’s pretty hard to believe that last week’s 14-track set Génesis is actually his debut album. 

The album – which technically debuted last Thursday (June 22), bowing at No. 35 on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart with less than a full day of consumption– does not load up on those aforementioned Hot 100 hits, with only closer “Bye” having reached the chart. That should change next week, with the album dotting the daily charts of DSPs, led by likely breakout hit “Lady Gaga” with Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H. It’ll have to do most of its damage on streaming, as the album is also not yet for sale in any physical formats.  

Kelly Clarkson, Chemistry (Atlantic): While veteran pop/rock hitmaker Kelly Clarkson isn’t the streaming force that Young Thug and Peso Pluma are, her Chemistry album will probably have much more of a sales impact. The LP, her first since 2017’s Meaning of Life is available in at least six different vinyl variants, including some retail-exclusive editions – along with a signed CD sold in her webstore, and Amazon- and Target-exclusive versions with a poster and alternate cover, respectively. It may be enough to help Chemistry became Clarkson’s eighth consecutive top five-charting original album, a streak that stretches all the way back to 2003 debut Thankful. 

IN THE MIX 

Kim Petras, Feed the Beast (Amigo/Republic): Though cult pop favorite Kim Petras has been releasing acclaimed singles, EPs and mixtapes for six years now, June’s Feed the Beast is her official debut album. It arrives after her breakthrough success with the Hot 100-topping “Unholy” — which is featured here, along with the Nicki Minaj-featuring “Alone” – and is being sold as a signed CD in her webstore. 

Portugal. The Man, Chris Black Changed My Life (Atlantic): Portugal. The Man a very personally and collectively trying half-decade following their 2017 breakout smash “Feel It Still,” as chronicled in the group’s recent Billboard digital cover story. Their new set – named after PTM’s longtime friend and touring hypeman, who died in 2019 – doesn’t feature a single like that, but it does have a top 10 Rock & Alternative Airplay hit with “Dummy.” It’s also available as a cassette, as a signed CD, and in multiple vinyl variants.